Spread: Spurs (-11.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (55%) · Jazz at 58¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Spurs42¢Jazz58¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$21.07

Smart Money Entry

43.7¢ → 58¢

+33% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs42%

Jazz58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz6 traders

Total Value$610.28

Total Shares1,294

Combined PnL+$25.13

Spurs5 traders

Total Value$330.04

Total Shares713

Combined PnL-$46.2

Jazz — 55%Spurs — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 50.7¢	$263.74	$272.86	+$9.12	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
VE VenusianCTR	Spursavg 48.7¢	$255.08	$227.65	-$27.43	38% 1437-2313 (3750)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Spursavg 66¢	$288.75	$177.74	-$30.31	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 66¢	$167.64	$137.16	-$42.32
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 44.5¢	$39.3	$40.58	+$12.01
MA MadridTime	Jazzavg 34¢	$153.44	$166.98	+$13.54	38% 1426-2282 (3708)
RN1	Jazzavg 50¢	$114.03	$115.15	+$1.12	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Spursavg 50¢	$66.09	$58.82	-$7.27	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Spursavg 65.7¢	$64.34	$37.62	-$10.76	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Jazzavg 45¢	$30	$30.66	+$0.67	39% 1675-2667 (4342)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Jazzavg 37¢	$16.08	$16.08	+$0	46% 1242-1436 (2678)
LI LightParadox<$100	Jazzavg 34¢	$7.86	$8.55	+$0.69	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Spursavg 58¢	$5.76	$5.01	-$0.75	50% 501-511 (1012)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Spursavg 48¢	$0.92	$0.93	+$0.01	49% 2903-2977 (5880)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$263.74

Value

$272.86

PnL

+$9.12

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

VenusianCTR

Spurs

Invested

$255.08

Value

$227.65

PnL

-$27.43

Record

38%

1437-2313 (3750)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$288.75

Value

$177.74

PnL

-$30.31

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

Both legs:

Spurs$167.6466¢-$42.32

Jazz$39.344.5¢+$12.01

MadridTime

Jazz

Invested

$153.44

Value

$166.98

PnL

+$13.54

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

RN1

Jazz

Invested

$114.03

Value

$115.15

PnL

+$1.12

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

LimousinCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$66.09

Value

$58.82

PnL

-$7.27

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$64.34

Value

$37.62

PnL

-$10.76

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

topdogbigboi<$100

Jazz

Invested

$30

Value

$30.66

PnL

+$0.67

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

SnakeBall<$100

Jazz

Invested

$16.08

Value

$16.08

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1242-1436 (2678)

LightParadox<$100

Jazz

Invested

$7.86

Value

$8.55

PnL

+$0.69

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

Anon455CTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$5.76

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.75

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.