Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Spurs (56%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Spurs (-15.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (58%) · Kings at 44¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 7

Spurs56¢Kings44¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.8K

Combined PnL

-$319.49

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 43.5¢

-10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs56%

Kings44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings7 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares13,740

Combined PnL-$614.93

Spurs5 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares9,412

Combined PnL+$295.44

Kings — 58%Spurs — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpurs 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpKings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKings 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Kingsavg 45.3¢	$7.9K	$8.0K	+$19.41	54% 18311-15408 (33719)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 45.3¢	$5.4K	$5.2K	-$154.61
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 51.3¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$174.02
nehcnehcCTR	Kingsavg 50.1¢	$4.7K	$4.2K	-$578.69	61% 4156-2622 (6778)
AY ay118	Spursavg 51.2¢	$3.1K	$3.3K	+$210.52	44% 55-69 (124)
OM omnibus-076daa	Spursavg 51.2¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$94.84	50% 21379-21654 (43033)
HI hi774cCTR	Kingsavg 45.7¢	$950.97	$915.69	-$35.28	46% 5257-6101 (11358)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Kingsavg 45.5¢	$603.98	$613.88	+$9.9	64% 10070-5629 (15699)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 45.5¢	$428.98	$419.63	-$9.35
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 50¢	$175	$194.25	+$19.25
SE sentrioCTR	Kingsavg 44.5¢	$596.12	$595.78	-$0.34	50% 26114-25775 (51889)
rayvanmechelen	Spursavg 51.2¢	$301.32	$323.37	-$20.58	53% 2621-2316 (4937)
38 38791873984189	Spursavg 52.8¢	$144.08	$154.06	+$9.98	48% 61940-66801 (128741)
GC GC-PCTR	Kingsavg 44¢	$154	$154	+$0	64% 10093-5699 (15792)
RN1CTR	Kingsavg 44¢	$110	$110	+$0	53% 61790-54064 (115854)
VeryLucky888CTR	Kingsavg 45.1¢	$118.92	$105.69	-$1.35	58% 47081-33963 (81044)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kingsavg 47.4¢	$30.19	$14.19	+$0.72	54% 10097-8479 (18576)
TA takeormake<$100	Spursavg 48.2¢	$3.85	$4.39	+$0.68	52% 4959-4511 (9470)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$7,933.29

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$19.41

Record

54%

18311-15408 (33719)

Both legs:

Kings$5,385.1445.3¢-$154.61

Spurs$2,548.1551.3¢+$174.02

nehcnehcCTR

Kings

Invested

$4,738.89

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$578.69

Record

61%

4156-2622 (6778)

ay118

Spurs

Invested

$3,082.46

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$210.52

Record

44%

55-69 (124)

omnibus-076daa

Spurs

Invested

$1,296.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$94.84

Record

50%

21379-21654 (43033)

hi774cCTR

Kings

Invested

$950.97

Value

$915.69

PnL

-$35.28

Record

46%

5257-6101 (11358)

NM-PARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$603.98

Value

$613.88

PnL

+$9.9

Record

64%

10070-5629 (15699)

Both legs:

Kings$428.9845.5¢-$9.35

Spurs$17550¢+$19.25

sentrioCTR

Kings

Invested

$596.12

Value

$595.78

PnL

-$0.34

Record

50%

26114-25775 (51889)

rayvanmechelen

Spurs

Invested

$301.32

Value

$323.37

PnL

-$20.58

Record

53%

2621-2316 (4937)

38791873984189

Spurs

Invested

$144.08

Value

$154.06

PnL

+$9.98

Record

48%

61940-66801 (128741)

GC-PCTR

Kings

Invested

$154

Value

$154

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10093-5699 (15792)

RN1CTR

Kings

Invested

$110

Value

$110

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

61790-54064 (115854)

VeryLucky888CTR

Kings

Invested

$118.92

Value

$105.69

PnL

-$1.35

Record

58%

47081-33963 (81044)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$30.19

Value

$14.19

PnL

+$0.72

Record

54%

10097-8479 (18576)

takeormake<$100

Spurs

Invested

$3.85

Value

$4.39

PnL

+$0.68

Record

52%

4959-4511 (9470)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpurs 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpKings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKings 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.