Spurs vs. Trail Blazers

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (58%) · Spurs at 66¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 8

Spurs66¢Trail Blazers34¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 58%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.2K

Combined PnL

$791.65

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 65.5¢

+13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

7 of 12 top traders (58%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs66%

Trail Blazers35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs7 traders

Total Value$18.9K

Total Shares29,835

Combined PnL+$610.87

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares28,413

Combined PnL+$180.78

Spurs — 58%Trail Blazers — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (14 on Spurs) disagree here.

whaleTrail Blazers 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrSpurs 62% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Spurs 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Spursavg 57¢	$12.4K	$12.8K	+$376.21	46% 5301-6140 (11441)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR	Trail Blazersavg 44¢	$11.8K	$11.1K	+$185.11	50% 7663-7808 (15471)
nigiri99ARB<$100	Spursavg 61¢	$7.4K	$7.4K	-$24.41	46% 8745-10440 (19185)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 61¢	$4.6K	$5.0K	+$344.6
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 39.8¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$369.01
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494	Spursavg 59¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$0	52% 1309-1197 (2506)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Spursavg 59.1¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$223.41	55% 3746-3060 (6806)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 40.6¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$37.98	48% 62298-67159 (129457)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 57.7¢	$506.58	$574.78	+$43.3
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 40.6¢	$566	$480.39	-$81.28
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Spursavg 59¢	$833.44	$833.19	-$0.25	53% 664-584 (1248)
FO forecastication4ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 37.5¢	$364.64	$391.95	+$27.31	50% 1406-1407 (2813)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 37.5¢	$256.04	$280.24	+$24.2
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 57.4¢	$108.59	$111.71	+$3.11
PU purplegatto	Spursavg 63¢	$326.42	$339.37	+$12.95	49% 6375-6549 (12924)
OD Oddstorm	Spursavg 62.5¢	$340.97	$320.48	-$2.3	48% 7443-7977 (15420)
TA takeormakeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 40¢	$169.32	$169.2	-$2.11	52% 5074-4621 (9695)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 37.5¢	$167.02	$124.12	-$5.25	58% 21639-15721 (37360)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 37.5¢	$74.73	$68.78	-$7.15
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 62.1¢	$52.49	$55.34	+$1.9
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 40.5¢	$83.8	$84.87	+$1.07	53% 12568-11272 (23840)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Spursavg 57.3¢	$28.33	$29.18	+$0.85	51% 4967-4821 (9788)
PA Pan9XCTR	Trail Blazersavg 38.8¢	$102.65	$23.49	-$3.29	54% 10365-8691 (19056)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 41¢	$6.15	$6.15	+$0	50% 8420-8457 (16877)

hi774c

Spurs

Invested

$12,399.22

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$376.21

Record

46%

5301-6140 (11441)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$11,778.86

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$185.11

Record

50%

7663-7808 (15471)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$7,379.67

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$24.41

Record

46%

8745-10440 (19185)

Both legs:

Spurs$4,629.4761¢+$344.6

Trail Blazers$2,750.239.8¢-$369.01

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494

Spurs

Invested

$2,336.26

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

1309-1197 (2506)

JAMJAMJAM4

Spurs

Invested

$2,069.09

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$223.41

Record

55%

3746-3060 (6806)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,768.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$37.98

Record

48%

62298-67159 (129457)

Both legs:

Spurs$506.5857.7¢+$43.3

Trail Blazers$56640.6¢-$81.28

monkeymashingkeyboard

Spurs

Invested

$833.44

Value

$833.19

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

664-584 (1248)

forecastication4ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$364.64

Value

$391.95

PnL

+$27.31

Record

50%

1406-1407 (2813)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$256.0437.5¢+$24.2

Spurs$108.5957.4¢+$3.11

purplegatto

Spurs

Invested

$326.42

Value

$339.37

PnL

+$12.95

Record

49%

6375-6549 (12924)

Oddstorm

Spurs

Invested

$340.97

Value

$320.48

PnL

-$2.3

Record

48%

7443-7977 (15420)

takeormakeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$169.32

Value

$169.2

PnL

-$2.11

Record

52%

5074-4621 (9695)

ghorrockARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$167.02

Value

$124.12

PnL

-$5.25

Record

58%

21639-15721 (37360)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$74.7337.5¢-$7.15

Spurs$52.4962.1¢+$1.9

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$83.8

Value

$84.87

PnL

+$1.07

Record

53%

12568-11272 (23840)

6512395314597884<$100

Spurs

Invested

$28.33

Value

$29.18

PnL

+$0.85

Record

51%

4967-4821 (9788)

Pan9XCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$102.65

Value

$23.49

PnL

-$3.29

Record

54%

10365-8691 (19056)

RLWGCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$6.15

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

8420-8457 (16877)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

7 of 12 top traders (58%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (14 on Spurs) disagree here.

whaleTrail Blazers 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrSpurs 62% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Spurs 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.