Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 226.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 63%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
$40
47.9¢ → 51.5¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$59 | — |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54¢ | $762.75 | $684.43 | -$71.34 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49¢ | $307.01 | $322.55 | +$12.34 | |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 47.2¢ | $386.76 | $421.56 | +$34.8 | — |
 nigiri99 | Underavg 51¢ | $172.89 | $174.59 | +$1.7 | — |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 50.6¢ | $251.35 | $56.19 | -$6.18 | — |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $48.18 | $55.76 | +$7.58 | — |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $25.14 | $26.97 | +$1.83 | — |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $4.85 | -$0.05 | — |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.58 | +$0.38 | — |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $1.04 | $0.99 | -$0.05 | — |
Invested
$1,065.98
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$59
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$386.76
Value
$421.56
PnL
+$34.8
Record
—
nigiri99Invested
$172.89
Value
$174.59
PnL
+$1.7
Record
—
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$251.35
Value
$56.19
PnL
-$6.18
Record
—
Invested
$48.18
Value
$55.76
PnL
+$7.58
Record
—
Invested
$25.14
Value
$26.97
PnL
+$1.83
Record
—
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.85
PnL
-$0.05
Record
—
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.58
PnL
+$0.38
Record
—
Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.99
PnL
-$0.05
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.