Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 225.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 51¢ · $940 held · ends Nov 10

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$939.97

Combined PnL

$7.15

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 50.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$257.99

Total Shares511

Combined PnL+$7.66

Over6 traders

Total Value$399.26

Total Shares807

Combined PnL-$0.51

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 48¢	$240.53	$247.89	+$7.36	26% 89-254 (343)
RN1	Overavg 50¢	$220.3	$218.07	-$2.23	54% 235-203 (438)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$1.6K	$200	+$0	100% 28-0 (28)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$101	+$1
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$99	-$1
VeryLucky888	Overavg 49¢	$122.5	$123.75	+$1.25	48% 61-65 (126)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 57¢	$89.01	$82.72	-$7.36	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$60.42	$53.53	-$7.95
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.5¢	$28.59	$29.19	+$0.59
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Overavg 49¢	$32.59	$32.92	+$0.33	3% 4-156 (160)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 50¢	$12.5	$12.38	-$0.13	48% 174-190 (364)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$9.8	$10.1	+$0.3	25% 88-264 (352)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 49¢	$9.8	$9.9	+$0.1	67% 29-14 (43)
HI hi774c<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.08	$2.24	+$0.16	3% 9-250 (259)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$240.53

Value

$247.89

PnL

+$7.36

Record

26%

89-254 (343)

RN1

Over

Invested

$220.3

Value

$218.07

PnL

-$2.23

Record

54%

235-203 (438)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,600

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

100%

28-0 (28)

Both legs:

Invested

$122.5

Value

$123.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

48%

61-65 (126)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$89.01

Value

$82.72

PnL

-$7.36

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Over$60.4257¢-$7.95

Under$28.5948.5¢+$0.59

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Over

Invested

$32.59

Value

$32.92

PnL

+$0.33

Record

4-156 (160)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$12.5

Value

$12.38

PnL

-$0.13

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.8

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

25%

88-264 (352)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

67%

29-14 (43)

hi774c<$100

Over

Invested

$2.08

Value

$2.24

PnL

+$0.16

Record

9-250 (259)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.