Spread: Spurs (-23.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (83%) · Suns at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Suns
6
Suns 83%
$1.8K
$0.15
87.1¢ → 87.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidSuns at 88%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Sunsavg 87.2¢ | $677.5 | $679.86 | +$2.36 | — |
38 38791873984189 | Sunsavg 87¢ | $363.19 | $365.28 | +$2.09 | — |
 RN1 | Sunsavg 87¢ | $243.6 | $245 | +$1.4 | — |
SE sentrio | Sunsavg 87.1¢ | $232.33 | $233.35 | +$1.02 | — |
 nigiri99CTR | Spursavg 12.9¢ | $211.33 | $204.25 | -$7.08 | — |
PA Pan9X | Sunsavg 87¢ | $174.99 | $55.62 | +$0.36 | — |
Invested
$677.5
Value
$679.86
PnL
+$2.36
Record
—
Invested
$363.19
Value
$365.28
PnL
+$2.09
Record
—
RN1Invested
$243.6
Value
$245
PnL
+$1.4
Record
—
Invested
$232.33
Value
$233.35
PnL
+$1.02
Record
—
nigiri99CTRInvested
$211.33
Value
$204.25
PnL
-$7.08
Record
—
Invested
$174.99
Value
$55.62
PnL
+$0.36
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.