Spread: Spurs (-21.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (80%) · Suns at 85¢ · $902 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Suns
5
Suns 80%
$901.89
$0.69
84¢ → 84.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSuns at 85%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Sunsavg 84¢ | $456.14 | $458.85 | +$2.72 | — |
38 38791873984189 | Sunsavg 83.9¢ | $200.64 | $201.96 | +$1.32 | — |
 nigiri99CTR | Spursavg 16¢ | $122.64 | $118.58 | -$4.06 | — |
SE sentrio<$100 | Sunsavg 84¢ | $89.86 | $90.4 | +$0.53 | — |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Sunsavg 84¢ | $38 | $32.11 | +$0.19 | — |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.