Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 265.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 96¢ · $239 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 17%
$238.6
$15.94
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 96%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 91.4¢ | $168.14 | $166.52 | -$1.62 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 6.4¢ | $46.77 | $56.39 | +$9.62 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 5¢ | $2.55 | $6.63 | +$4.08 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
5D 0x5d40...ba95CTR<$100 | Overavg 6¢ | $3.19 | $4.26 | +$1.06 | — |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 5.5¢ | $1.12 | $2.64 | +$1.53 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 5.3¢ | $0.89 | $2.16 | +$1.27 | 39% 395-620 (1015) |
RN1Invested
$168.14
Value
$166.52
PnL
-$1.62
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$46.77
Value
$56.39
PnL
+$9.62
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$6.63
PnL
+$4.08
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$3.19
Value
$4.26
PnL
+$1.06
Record
—
Invested
$1.12
Value
$2.64
PnL
+$1.53
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
Invested
$0.89
Value
$2.16
PnL
+$1.27
Record
39%
395-620 (1015)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.