Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 87¢ · $428 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
$428.13
$44.42
68.9¢ → 86.5¢
+26% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 87%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 69.5¢ | $248.06 | $276.68 | +$28.62 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 30.7¢ | $107.99 | $123.2 | +$15.21 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $14.13 | $12.59 | +$2.51 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $10.24 | $8.53 | -$1.71 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $7.34 | $7.13 | -$0.2 | 47% 299-342 (641) |
RN1Invested
$248.06
Value
$276.68
PnL
+$28.62
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$107.99
Value
$123.2
PnL
+$15.21
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$14.13
Value
$12.59
PnL
+$2.51
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
Invested
$10.24
Value
$8.53
PnL
-$1.71
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
Invested
$7.34
Value
$7.13
PnL
-$0.2
Record
47%
299-342 (641)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.