Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 227.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 93¢ · $316 held · ended Nov 12

Over93¢Under7¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$316.07

Combined PnL

$36.16

Smart Money Entry

76.1¢ → 93¢

+22% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over93%

Under7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$291.53

Total Shares326

Combined PnL+$43.52

Under3 traders

Total Value$24.54

Total Shares154

Combined PnL-$7.36

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Overavg 70¢	$107.1	$133.11	+$26.01	69% 2587-1182 (3769)
RN1	Overavg 87¢	$98.31	$106.22	+$7.91	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 71¢	$42.6	$52.2	+$9.6	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$19.5	$19.16	-$0.34	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$8.1	$3.51	-$4.59	49% 693-734 (1427)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$4.3	$1.86	-$2.44	55% 683-554 (1237)

purplegatto

Over

Invested

$107.1

Value

$133.11

PnL

+$26.01

Record

69%

2587-1182 (3769)

RN1

Over

Invested

$98.31

Value

$106.22

PnL

+$7.91

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$42.6

Value

$52.2

PnL

+$9.6

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.5

Value

$19.16

PnL

-$0.34

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.1

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$4.59

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.3

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$2.44

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.