Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 223.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 75¢ · $407 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$407.26
-$0.26
77.1¢ → 75¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 75%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 77¢ | $277.97 | $270.75 | -$7.22 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $90.39 | $98.25 | +$7.86 | 30% 401-920 (1321) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 77¢ | $24.64 | $24 | -$0.64 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 81¢ | $8.46 | $7.73 | -$0.73 | 55% 680-552 (1232) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $4.07 | $4.13 | +$0.05 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $1.99 | $2.4 | +$0.42 | 31% 412-918 (1330) |
Invested
$277.97
Value
$270.75
PnL
-$7.22
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Invested
$90.39
Value
$98.25
PnL
+$7.86
Record
30%
401-920 (1321)
Invested
$24.64
Value
$24
PnL
-$0.64
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
Invested
$8.46
Value
$7.73
PnL
-$0.73
Record
55%
680-552 (1232)
Invested
$4.07
Value
$4.13
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$1.99
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.42
Record
31%
412-918 (1330)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.