Spread: Spurs (-8.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (57%) · Spurs at 72¢ · $268 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Spurs
7
Spurs 57%
$267.67
$2.59
70¢ → 71.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSpurs at 72%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Spursavg 70¢ | $168.64 | $173.18 | +$4.54 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 30¢ | $66.9 | $64.67 | -$2.23 | 30% 377-862 (1239) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Spursavg 70¢ | $19.6 | $19.88 | +$0.28 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Spursavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $3.55 | +$0 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Spursavg 71¢ | $3.54 | $3.54 | -$0 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 28¢ | $1.45 | $1.47 | +$0.02 | 31% 376-842 (1218) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 29¢ | $1.4 | $1.37 | -$0.02 | 30% 372-861 (1233) |
Invested
$168.64
Value
$173.18
PnL
+$4.54
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$66.9
Value
$64.67
PnL
-$2.23
Record
30%
377-862 (1239)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$19.88
PnL
+$0.28
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.55
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$3.54
Value
$3.54
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$1.47
PnL
+$0.02
Record
31%
376-842 (1218)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.37
PnL
-$0.02
Record
30%
372-861 (1233)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.