Spread: Spurs (-7.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (83%) · Bulls at 81¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Bulls
6
Bulls 83%
1 arb excluded
$4.6K
$872.81
53.5¢ → 80.5¢
+50% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidBulls at 81%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR | Spursavg 45.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$68.37 | 53% 290-259 (549) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Bullsavg 54¢ | $1.0K | $1.5K | +$512.87 | 53% 1852-1667 (3519) |
BI biying88888 | Bullsavg 54¢ | $820.26 | $1.2K | +$410.13 | 37% 121-203 (324) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Spursavg 52¢ | $145.21 | $160.54 | +$15.33 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
| └ Spurs leg | Spursavg 52¢ | $120.12 | $101.64 | -$18.48 | |
| └ Bulls leg | Bullsavg 23¢ | $25.09 | $58.9 | +$33.81 | |
JU justaluckydude | Bullsavg 48¢ | $110.88 | $124.74 | +$13.86 | 38% 222-363 (585) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Bullsavg 26¢ | $2.6 | $5.4 | +$2.8 | 31% 412-920 (1332) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Bullsavg 23¢ | $1.13 | $2.66 | +$1.53 | 39% 395-620 (1015) |
Invested
$1,636.94
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$68.37
Record
53%
290-259 (549)
Invested
$1,025.73
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$512.87
Record
53%
1852-1667 (3519)
Invested
$820.26
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$410.13
Record
37%
121-203 (324)
Invested
$145.21
Value
$160.54
PnL
+$15.33
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Both legs:
Invested
$110.88
Value
$124.74
PnL
+$13.86
Record
38%
222-363 (585)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$2.8
Record
31%
412-920 (1332)
Invested
$1.13
Value
$2.66
PnL
+$1.53
Record
39%
395-620 (1015)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.