Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bulls, while the market favors Spurs (80%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (100%) · Bulls at 20¢ · $741 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Bulls
5
Bulls 100%
$741.47
-$67.09
20.7¢ → 20¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidBulls at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 80%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE VenusianCTR | Bullsavg 21¢ | $532.53 | $481.81 | -$50.72 | 31% 393-875 (1268) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Bullsavg 20.6¢ | $140.93 | $130.23 | -$10.7 | 30% 384-878 (1262) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 19¢ | $73.72 | $73.72 | +$0 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 21¢ | $60.2 | $54.47 | -$5.73 | 30% 383-882 (1265) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 19¢ | $1.17 | $1.23 | +$0.06 | 38% 355-588 (943) |
Invested
$532.53
Value
$481.81
PnL
-$50.72
Record
31%
393-875 (1268)
Invested
$140.93
Value
$130.23
PnL
-$10.7
Record
30%
384-878 (1262)
Invested
$73.72
Value
$73.72
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
Invested
$60.2
Value
$54.47
PnL
-$5.73
Record
30%
383-882 (1265)
Invested
$1.17
Value
$1.23
PnL
+$0.06
Record
38%
355-588 (943)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.