Spread: Spurs (-13.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (20%) · Spurs at 56¢ · $888 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Spurs
5
Spurs 20%
$887.62
$2.47
Research grade
AvoidSpurs at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Spursavg 55.5¢ | $510.14 | $512.65 | +$4.18 | 52% 464-433 (897) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Bullsavg 43.2¢ | $363.5 | $361.59 | -$1.91 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 42¢ | $8.4 | $8.6 | +$0.2 | 48% 673-715 (1388) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 43¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | +$0 | 51% 1853-1805 (3658) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 43¢ | $1.28 | $1.28 | +$0 | 38% 352-584 (936) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$510.14
Value
$512.65
PnL
+$4.18
Record
52%
464-433 (897)
Invested
$363.5
Value
$361.59
PnL
-$1.91
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$8.6
PnL
+$0.2
Record
48%
673-715 (1388)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1853-1805 (3658)
Invested
$1.28
Value
$1.28
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
352-584 (936)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.