Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bulls, while the market favors Spurs (63%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (100%) · Bulls at 37¢ · $107 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Bulls
6
Bulls 100%
$106.94
-$0.88
35.9¢ → 37¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidBulls at 37%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Bullsavg 36¢ | $54.45 | $52.94 | -$1.51 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 35¢ | $22.14 | $23.4 | +$1.26 | 47% 299-342 (641) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 36.3¢ | $10.91 | $10.52 | -$0.39 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 36.2¢ | $8.69 | $8.4 | -$0.29 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 37¢ | $7.99 | $7.99 | +$0 | 31% 412-918 (1330) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 36.5¢ | $3.65 | $3.7 | +$0.05 | 39% 394-619 (1013) |
Invested
$54.45
Value
$52.94
PnL
-$1.51
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Invested
$22.14
Value
$23.4
PnL
+$1.26
Record
47%
299-342 (641)
Invested
$10.91
Value
$10.52
PnL
-$0.39
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
Invested
$8.69
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$0.29
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$7.99
Value
$7.99
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
412-918 (1330)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$0.05
Record
39%
394-619 (1013)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.