Spread: Spurs (-10.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (50%) · Spurs at 65¢ · $223 held · ends Nov 12

Spurs65¢Bulls35¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 50%

Total Value

$222.71

Combined PnL

-$4.82

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 65¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs65%

Bulls35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs3 traders

Total Value$180.21

Total Shares280

Combined PnL-$4.31

Bulls3 traders

Total Value$42.5

Total Shares121

Combined PnL-$0.51

Spurs — 50%Bulls — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Spurs 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Spursavg 67¢	$119.88	$114.56	-$5.32	69% 2576-1173 (3749)
38 38791873984189<$100	Spursavg 64¢	$48	$48.75	+$0.75	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Bullsavg 36¢	$38.16	$37.1	-$1.06	29% 332-810 (1142)
PA Pan9X<$100	Spursavg 64¢	$16.64	$16.9	+$0.26	48% 512-544 (1056)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Bullsavg 33¢	$3.3	$3.6	+$0.3	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Bullsavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.8	+$0.25	13% 28-196 (224)

purplegatto

Spurs

Invested

$119.88

Value

$114.56

PnL

-$5.32

Record

69%

2576-1173 (3749)

38791873984189<$100

Spurs

Invested

$48

Value

$48.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

LimousinCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$38.16

Value

$37.1

PnL

-$1.06

Record

29%

332-810 (1142)

Pan9X<$100

Spurs

Invested

$16.64

Value

$16.9

PnL

+$0.26

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.25

Record

13%

28-196 (224)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Spurs 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.