Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 96¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 3

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$120.67

Smart Money Entry

64.5¢ → 95.5¢

+48% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,404

Combined PnL-$61.53

Over5 traders

Total Value$176.81

Total Shares1,389

Combined PnL-$59.14

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 87.8¢	$807.94	$837.25	+$29.31	51% 20858-19829 (40687)
nigiri99	Underavg 55¢	$768.73	$796.29	+$6.61	46% 8110-9449 (17559)
SE sentrio	Underavg 55.2¢	$433.35	$468.68	-$49.54	50% 25054-24766 (49820)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 55¢	$371.7	$374.33	-$79.21	47% 13296-14825 (28121)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 55.3¢	$44.66	$73.53	+$28.87	52% 495-455 (950)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 52.6¢	$84.76	$69.36	-$12.98	45% 13149-16000 (29149)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 12¢	$115.18	$67.19	-$47.99	55% 3195-2597 (5792)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 88¢	$52.79	$54.97	+$2.18	53% 6660-6014 (12674)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$19.1	$24.9	+$5.8	48% 5652-6118 (11770)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$9.66	$9.03	-$0.63	58% 29954-21993 (51947)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Overavg 47.3¢	$9.67	$6.34	-$3.33	54% 3481-3017 (6498)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 54.5¢	$5.45	$5.7	+$0.25	52% 8292-7524 (15816)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$807.94

Value

$837.25

PnL

+$29.31

Record

51%

20858-19829 (40687)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$768.73

Value

$796.29

PnL

+$6.61

Record

46%

8110-9449 (17559)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$433.35

Value

$468.68

PnL

-$49.54

Record

50%

25054-24766 (49820)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$371.7

Value

$374.33

PnL

-$79.21

Record

47%

13296-14825 (28121)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$44.66

Value

$73.53

PnL

+$28.87

Record

52%

495-455 (950)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$84.76

Value

$69.36

PnL

-$12.98

Record

45%

13149-16000 (29149)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$115.18

Value

$67.19

PnL

-$47.99

Record

55%

3195-2597 (5792)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$52.79

Value

$54.97

PnL

+$2.18

Record

53%

6660-6014 (12674)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.1

Value

$24.9

PnL

+$5.8

Record

48%

5652-6118 (11770)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.66

Value

$9.03

PnL

-$0.63

Record

58%

29954-21993 (51947)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.67

Value

$6.34

PnL

-$3.33

Record

54%

3481-3017 (6498)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.7

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

8292-7524 (15816)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.