Spread: Mavericks (-14.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (63%) · Kings at 87¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 3

Mavericks14¢Kings86¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 63%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$24.52

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 86.5¢

+22% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks14%

Kings87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,719

Combined PnL+$149.87

Mavericks3 traders

Total Value$109.44

Total Shares811

Combined PnL-$125.34

Kings — 63%Mavericks — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMavericks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKings 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Kingsavg 71¢	$581.9	$708.51	+$126.6	50% 4090-4030 (8120)
LI Limousin	Kingsavg 71¢	$539.35	$539.6	+$0.25	54% 626-537 (1163)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Mavericksavg 29¢	$218.41	$101.77	-$116.64	51% 21008-19991 (40999)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Kingsavg 70¢	$52.5	$64.88	+$12.38	51% 4308-4133 (8441)
DI dips.<$100	Kingsavg 71¢	$29.82	$36.33	+$6.51	46% 7434-8639 (16073)
38 38791873984189<$100	Kingsavg 68.5¢	$15.72	$19.85	+$4.13	47% 13319-14853 (28172)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 28.9¢	$14.97	$6.99	-$7.98	52% 6768-6135 (12903)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 28¢	$1.4	$0.68	-$0.72	48% 5733-6182 (11915)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Kings

Invested

$581.9

Value

$708.51

PnL

+$126.6

Record

50%

4090-4030 (8120)

Limousin

Kings

Invested

$539.35

Value

$539.6

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

626-537 (1163)

FlaznorpCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$218.41

Value

$101.77

PnL

-$116.64

Record

51%

21008-19991 (40999)

6512395314597884<$100

Kings

Invested

$52.5

Value

$64.88

PnL

+$12.38

Record

51%

4308-4133 (8441)

dips.<$100

Kings

Invested

$29.82

Value

$36.33

PnL

+$6.51

Record

46%

7434-8639 (16073)

38791873984189<$100

Kings

Invested

$15.72

Value

$19.85

PnL

+$4.13

Record

47%

13319-14853 (28172)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$14.97

Value

$6.99

PnL

-$7.98

Record

52%

6768-6135 (12903)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1.4

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$0.72

Record

48%

5733-6182 (11915)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMavericks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKings 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.