Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 223.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 74¢ · $148 held · ended Nov 14

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$147.76

Combined PnL

-$16.45

Smart Money Entry

63.8¢ → 73.5¢

+15% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$102.53

Total Shares160

Combined PnL+$0.35

Under3 traders

Total Value$45.23

Total Shares170

Combined PnL-$16.8

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 64¢	$93.44	$93.44	-$0	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$52.56	$36.5	-$16.06	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 63¢	$7.61	$7.73	+$0.12	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$5.76	$5.76	+$0	37% 926-1560 (2486)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$3.71	$2.97	-$0.74	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
RN1<$100	Overavg 53¢	$1.13	$1.36	+$0.23	56% 5073-4021 (9094)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$93.44

Value

$93.44

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.56

Value

$36.5

PnL

-$16.06

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$7.61

Value

$7.73

PnL

+$0.12

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.76

Value

$5.76

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

926-1560 (2486)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.71

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$0.74

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.36

PnL

+$0.23

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.