Spread: Kings (-3.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (71%) · Trail Blazers at 91¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Trail Blazers
7
Trail Blazers 71%
$1.0K
-$55.41
87.1¢ → 91¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidTrail Blazers at 91%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Trail Blazersavg 85¢ | $404.6 | $395.08 | -$9.52 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
 RN1 | Trail Blazersavg 88.6¢ | $408.01 | $385.6 | -$22.4 | 56% 5073-4021 (9094) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 89¢ | $89 | $83 | -$6 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 88.2¢ | $59.95 | $56.44 | -$3.51 | 58% 3436-2532 (5968) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Kingsavg 11.3¢ | $66.92 | $56.14 | -$10.78 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 89¢ | $44.5 | $41.5 | -$3 | 49% 1349-1396 (2745) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Kingsavg 11¢ | $1.43 | $1.24 | -$0.19 | 49% 1883-1987 (3870) |
nigiri99Invested
$404.6
Value
$395.08
PnL
-$9.52
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
RN1Invested
$408.01
Value
$385.6
PnL
-$22.4
Record
56%
5073-4021 (9094)
Invested
$89
Value
$83
PnL
-$6
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
Invested
$59.95
Value
$56.44
PnL
-$3.51
Record
58%
3436-2532 (5968)
Invested
$66.92
Value
$56.14
PnL
-$10.78
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$44.5
Value
$41.5
PnL
-$3
Record
49%
1349-1396 (2745)
Invested
$1.43
Value
$1.24
PnL
-$0.19
Record
49%
1883-1987 (3870)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.