Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Suns, while the market favors Trail Blazers (81%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (55%) · Suns at 20¢ · $841 held · ended Nov 5

Trail Blazers81¢Suns19¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 55%

Total Value

$841

Combined PnL

-$3.94

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 19.5¢

-65% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 81%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers81%

Suns20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns6 traders

Total Value$682.81

Total Shares1,066

Combined PnL+$63.22

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$158.29

Total Shares362

Combined PnL-$67.16

Suns — 55%Trail Blazers — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Sunsavg 58¢	$290	$307.5	+$17.5	58% 45668-33040 (78708)
RN1CTR	Sunsavg 59¢	$153.91	$159.92	+$6.01	53% 60353-52756 (113109)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Sunsavg 32.1¢	$39.77	$76.26	+$36.49	53% 4720-4228 (8948)
HO HomeRunHazard	Trail Blazersavg 58.9¢	$106.06	$70.56	-$35.49	54% 18061-15195 (33256)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Sunsavg 60.2¢	$69.45	$69.64	+$0.19	51% 24552-23218 (47770)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Sunsavg 59¢	$54.87	$57.2	+$2.33	48% 59829-63853 (123682)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Trail Blazersavg 52.8¢	$55.64	$40.59	-$15.05	50% 4275-4242 (8517)
PA Pan9X<$100	Trail Blazersavg 63.3¢	$57.13	$25.38	-$3.04	50% 4211-4243 (8454)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Trail Blazersavg 71¢	$29.13	$15.79	-$13.35	53% 11951-10480 (22431)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Sunsavg 58¢	$11.6	$12.3	+$0.7	56% 7792-6241 (14033)
SE sentrio<$100	Trail Blazersavg 40¢	$6.19	$5.96	-$0.23	50% 25602-25300 (50902)

VeryLucky888CTR

Suns

Invested

$290

Value

$307.5

PnL

+$17.5

Record

58%

45668-33040 (78708)

RN1CTR

Suns

Invested

$153.91

Value

$159.92

PnL

+$6.01

Record

53%

60353-52756 (113109)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$39.77

Value

$76.26

PnL

+$36.49

Record

53%

4720-4228 (8948)

HomeRunHazard

Trail Blazers

Invested

$106.06

Value

$70.56

PnL

-$35.49

Record

54%

18061-15195 (33256)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$69.45

Value

$69.64

PnL

+$0.19

Record

51%

24552-23218 (47770)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$54.87

Value

$57.2

PnL

+$2.33

Record

48%

59829-63853 (123682)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$55.64

Value

$40.59

PnL

-$15.05

Record

50%

4275-4242 (8517)

Pan9X<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$57.13

Value

$25.38

PnL

-$3.04

Record

50%

4211-4243 (8454)

justaluckydude<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$29.13

Value

$15.79

PnL

-$13.35

Record

53%

11951-10480 (22431)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$11.6

Value

$12.3

PnL

+$0.7

Record

56%

7792-6241 (14033)

sentrio<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$6.19

Value

$5.96

PnL

-$0.23

Record

50%

25602-25300 (50902)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 81%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.