Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (60%) · Trail Blazers at 55¢ · $564 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Trail Blazers
5
Trail Blazers 60%
$564.49
$2
55¢ → 54.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidTrail Blazers at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Trail Blazersavg 55¢ | $275 | $275 | -$0 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Sunsavg 44¢ | $123.64 | $123.64 | +$0 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
 RN1<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 55¢ | $98.18 | $98.17 | -$0 | 53% 60065-52434 (112499) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 55¢ | $40.06 | $40.06 | +$1.09 | 48% 59324-63332 (122656) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Sunsavg 44¢ | $26.71 | $27.62 | +$0.91 | 50% 25501-25206 (50707) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$275
Value
$275
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
Invested
$123.64
Value
$123.64
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
RN1<$100Invested
$98.18
Value
$98.17
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
60065-52434 (112499)
Invested
$40.06
Value
$40.06
PnL
+$1.09
Record
48%
59324-63332 (122656)
Invested
$26.71
Value
$27.62
PnL
+$0.91
Record
50%
25501-25206 (50707)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.