Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lakers, while the market favors Trail Blazers (52%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (25%) · Lakers at 49¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
8
Lakers 25%
$7.3K
-$42.87
48.7¢ → 48.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
25% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nehcnehcCTR | Lakersavg 48.8¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | -$20.43 | 61% 4156-2622 (6778) |
AP AppleTiiime | Trail Blazersavg 52¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$25 | 55% 70-58 (128) |
 VeryLucky888 | Trail Blazersavg 52¢ | $260 | $255 | -$5 | 58% 47081-33963 (81044) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Lakersavg 47¢ | $216.48 | $221.09 | +$6.91 | 52% 4959-4511 (9470) |
NM NM-P | Trail Blazersavg 51¢ | $145.72 | $145.72 | +$1.43 | 64% 10070-5629 (15699) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 52¢ | $75.37 | $73.92 | -$0.72 | 54% 18311-15408 (33719) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 52¢ | $47.57 | $46.66 | +$0 | 51% 3835-3755 (7590) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.55 | -$0.05 | 52% 8855-8042 (16897) |
nehcnehcCTRInvested
$3,952.31
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$20.43
Record
61%
4156-2622 (6778)
Invested
$2,600
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$25
Record
55%
70-58 (128)
VeryLucky888Invested
$260
Value
$255
PnL
-$5
Record
58%
47081-33963 (81044)
Invested
$216.48
Value
$221.09
PnL
+$6.91
Record
52%
4959-4511 (9470)
Invested
$145.72
Value
$145.72
PnL
+$1.43
Record
64%
10070-5629 (15699)
Invested
$75.37
Value
$73.92
PnL
-$0.72
Record
54%
18311-15408 (33719)
Invested
$47.57
Value
$46.66
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
3835-3755 (7590)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$0.05
Record
52%
8855-8042 (16897)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.