Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ja Morant: Assists O/U 5.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 41¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$39.45

Research grade

AvoidYes at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,976

Combined PnL-$2.47

No4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,692

Combined PnL+$41.91

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Yesavg 58.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$2.47	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
RollAwayTheDew	Noavg 41.9¢	$556.3	$538.29	-$18.01	53% 301-270 (571)
FO forecastication4	Noavg 40¢	$292	$350.4	+$58.4	49% 1112-1141 (2253)
FO Forecastication2	Noavg 42¢	$249.9	$249.9	-$0	50% 6761-6761 (13522)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 44¢	$16.72	$18.24	+$1.52	35% 14744-26906 (41650)

takeormakeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,148.49

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$2.47

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

RollAwayTheDew

Invested

$556.3

Value

$538.29

PnL

-$18.01

Record

53%

301-270 (571)

forecastication4

Invested

$292

Value

$350.4

PnL

+$58.4

Record

49%

1112-1141 (2253)

Forecastication2

Invested

$249.9

Value

$249.9

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

6761-6761 (13522)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$16.72

Value

$18.24

PnL

+$1.52

Record

35%

14744-26906 (41650)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.