Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Warriors, while the market favors Suns (59%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Warriors (-5.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (67%) · Warriors at 42¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Warriors
6
Warriors 67%
1 arb excluded
$6.3K
-$32.5
41.8¢ → 41.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidWarriors at 42%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Sunsavg 59¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$17.26 | 62% 4298-2635 (6933) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Sunsavg 57.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$20.63 | 54% 17515-14719 (32234) |
| └ Suns leg | Sunsavg 57.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$15.54 | |
| └ Warriors leg | Warriorsavg 41¢ | $417.38 | $422.47 | +$5.09 | |
GO goldmynameCTR | Warriorsavg 41¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$16.82 | 60% 155-105 (260) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Warriorsavg 43.1¢ | $725.76 | $698.72 | -$27.04 | 51% 17621-16621 (34242) |
65 6512395314597884CTR | Warriorsavg 42¢ | $420 | $415 | -$5 | 49% 2929-3048 (5977) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Warriorsavg 41.3¢ | $12.4 | $12.45 | +$0.05 | 56% 7468-5986 (13454) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Sunsavg 59¢ | $8.26 | $8.19 | -$0.07 | 58% 29907-21965 (51872) |
Invested
$2,036.68
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$17.26
Record
62%
4298-2635 (6933)
Invested
$1,698.27
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$20.63
Record
54%
17515-14719 (32234)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,402.2
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$16.82
Record
60%
155-105 (260)
Invested
$725.76
Value
$698.72
PnL
-$27.04
Record
51%
17621-16621 (34242)
Invested
$420
Value
$415
PnL
-$5
Record
49%
2929-3048 (5977)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$12.4
Value
$12.45
PnL
+$0.05
Record
56%
7468-5986 (13454)
Invested
$8.26
Value
$8.19
PnL
-$0.07
Record
58%
29907-21965 (51872)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.