Spread: Warriors (-4.5)

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (50%) · Suns at 56¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 3

Warriors44¢Suns56¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.0K

Combined PnL

$218.61

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 56.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors44%

Suns56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns7 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares18,384

Combined PnL+$318.26

Warriors7 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares16,171

Combined PnL-$99.64

Suns — 50%Warriors — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Warriors) and the top 1000 (13 on Suns) disagree here.

whaleSuns 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWarriors 50% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Sunsavg 55.2¢	$6.2K	$6.3K	+$145.15	54% 17515-14719 (32234)
32 32555CTR	Warriorsavg 44¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$42.17	51% 86-82 (168)
nigiri99	Sunsavg 53¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$150.69	46% 7288-8597 (15885)
GO goldmynameCTR	Warriorsavg 44¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$18.1	60% 155-105 (260)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Warriorsavg 44¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$16.08	62% 4298-2635 (6933)
PL pltrkr111	Sunsavg 56¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$8.93	54% 745-629 (1374)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Sunsavg 53.5¢	$667.24	$548.42	+$1.19	47% 13029-14600 (27629)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 53.5¢	$384.61	$406.55	+$13.66
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 47.3¢	$154.35	$141.88	-$12.47
SE sentrio	Sunsavg 56¢	$315.86	$317.95	+$2.09	50% 25009-24731 (49740)
HE Herdonia	Sunsavg 54.5¢	$243.2	$252.33	+$9.13	54% 3479-3014 (6493)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Warriorsavg 47¢	$235	$217.5	-$17.5	53% 5752-5086 (10838)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Warriorsavg 45¢	$170.55	$164.87	-$5.69	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Sunsavg 50¢	$73	$81.76	+$2.19	50% 7248-7347 (14595)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Sunsavg 56¢	$8.4	$8.48	+$0.07	58% 29907-21965 (51872)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 44¢	$5.06	$5	-$0.06	49% 3238-3323 (6561)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.35	-$0.05	56% 7468-5986 (13454)

HomeRunHazard

Suns

Invested

$6,184.14

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$145.15

Record

54%

17515-14719 (32234)

32555CTR

Warriors

Invested

$3,711

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$42.17

Record

51%

86-82 (168)

nigiri99

Suns

Invested

$2,272.61

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$150.69

Record

46%

7288-8597 (15885)

goldmynameCTR

Warriors

Invested

$1,592.8

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$18.1

Record

60%

155-105 (260)

SunlineTickerCTR

Warriors

Invested

$1,415.04

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$16.08

Record

62%

4298-2635 (6933)

pltrkr111

Suns

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$8.93

Record

54%

745-629 (1374)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$667.24

Value

$548.42

PnL

+$1.19

Record

47%

13029-14600 (27629)

Both legs:

Suns$384.6153.5¢+$13.66

Warriors$154.3547.3¢-$12.47

sentrio

Suns

Invested

$315.86

Value

$317.95

PnL

+$2.09

Record

50%

25009-24731 (49740)

Herdonia

Suns

Invested

$243.2

Value

$252.33

PnL

+$9.13

Record

54%

3479-3014 (6493)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Warriors

Invested

$235

Value

$217.5

PnL

-$17.5

Record

53%

5752-5086 (10838)

FlaznorpCTR

Warriors

Invested

$170.55

Value

$164.87

PnL

-$5.69

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

Forecastication2<$100

Suns

Invested

$73

Value

$81.76

PnL

+$2.19

Record

50%

7248-7347 (14595)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Suns

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.48

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

29907-21965 (51872)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$5.06

Value

PnL

-$0.06

Record

49%

3238-3323 (6561)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

56%

7468-5986 (13454)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Suns

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Warriors) and the top 1000 (13 on Suns) disagree here.

whaleSuns 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWarriors 50% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.