Spread: Warriors (-3.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (43%) · Suns at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Suns
7
Suns 43%
$3.6K
-$28.52
52.8¢ → 52.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidSuns at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MAGATheeStallion | Sunsavg 53¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$18.87 | 57% 267-198 (465) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Warriorsavg 47¢ | $526.4 | $532 | +$5.6 | 51% 17621-16621 (34242) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Warriorsavg 49.5¢ | $495 | $475 | -$20 | 58% 43617-31727 (75344) |
FE ferdinand2CTR | Warriorsavg 48¢ | $307.57 | $304.37 | -$3.2 | 51% 1005-965 (1970) |
TO tomb2456 | Sunsavg 51¢ | $267.24 | $275.1 | +$7.86 | 49% 305-313 (618) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Sunsavg 53¢ | $16.94 | $16.95 | +$0.01 | 58% 29907-21965 (51872) |
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100 | Warriorsavg 47¢ | $7.23 | $7.31 | +$0.08 | 54% 3479-3014 (6493) |
Invested
$1,999.69
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$18.87
Record
57%
267-198 (465)
Invested
$526.4
Value
$532
PnL
+$5.6
Record
51%
17621-16621 (34242)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$495
Value
$475
PnL
-$20
Record
58%
43617-31727 (75344)
Invested
$307.57
Value
$304.37
PnL
-$3.2
Record
51%
1005-965 (1970)
Invested
$267.24
Value
$275.1
PnL
+$7.86
Record
49%
305-313 (618)
Invested
$16.94
Value
$16.95
PnL
+$0.01
Record
58%
29907-21965 (51872)
Invested
$7.23
Value
$7.31
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
3479-3014 (6493)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.