76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 221.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
2 arb excluded
$1.7K
$23.96
54.4¢ → 55.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 43.5¢ | $769.5 | $785.71 | +$16.21 | 48% 59224-63218 (122442) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 43.5¢ | $457.21 | $467.7 | +$10.49 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54.5¢ | $312.29 | $318.02 | +$5.73 | |
FO forecastication4 | Underavg 54¢ | $249.92 | $256.86 | +$6.94 | 50% 1337-1356 (2693) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $247.5 | $250 | +$2.5 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 55¢ | $137.5 | $138.75 | +$1.25 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 44¢ | $110 | $111.25 | +$1.25 | |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 43¢ | $218.08 | $225.69 | +$7.61 | 54% 18039-15167 (33206) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 55¢ | $166.07 | $167.91 | +$1.84 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $14.24 | $20.94 | +$6.7 | 57% 12255-9317 (21572) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 53.6¢ | $15.66 | $5.81 | +$0.86 | 58% 19424-14279 (33703) |
Invested
$769.5
Value
$785.71
PnL
+$16.21
Record
48%
59224-63218 (122442)
Both legs:
Invested
$249.92
Value
$256.86
PnL
+$6.94
Record
50%
1337-1356 (2693)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$247.5
Value
$250
PnL
+$2.5
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
Both legs:
Invested
$218.08
Value
$225.69
PnL
+$7.61
Record
54%
18039-15167 (33206)
Invested
$166.07
Value
$167.91
PnL
+$1.84
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$14.24
Value
$20.94
PnL
+$6.7
Record
57%
12255-9317 (21572)
Invested
$15.66
Value
$5.81
PnL
+$0.86
Record
58%
19424-14279 (33703)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.