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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.

76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 249.5

Resolved Under. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

5

Over 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,621

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,304

Combined PnL+$477.22

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 36.8¢	$3.8K	—	$-1.4K	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Underavg 70.6¢	$991.88	$1.0K	+$8.12	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
└ Under leg	Underavg 70.6¢	$705.9	$1.0K	+$294
└ Over leg	Overavg 62¢	$285.89	—	-$285.89
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 56.3¢	$687.27	$776.04	+$88.77	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.3¢	$437.07	$776.04	+$338.95
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.4¢	$250.14	—	-$250.18
SL SlickRick123	Underavg 64¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$376.92	47% 6237-6947 (13184)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 34.3¢	$1.3K	—	-$282.97	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 61.7¢	$376.93	$163.99	+$61.13	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 54.7¢	$2.5K	$92.97	+$39.17	48% 70301-75984 (146285)

justaluckydudeCTR

Invested

$3,808.68

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Invested

$991.88

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$8.12

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

Both legs:

Under$705.970.6¢+$294

Over$285.8962¢-$285.89

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$687.27

Value

$776.04

PnL

+$88.77

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

Both legs:

Under$437.0756.3¢+$338.95

Over$250.1440.4¢-$250.18

Invested

$1,047

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$376.92

Record

47%

6237-6947 (13184)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Invested

$1,290.4

Value

—

PnL

-$282.97

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Invested

$376.93

Value

$163.99

PnL

+$61.13

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

Invested

$2,496.9

Value

$92.97

PnL

+$39.17

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xeb784493...420509

Slug

nba-phi-chi-2026-11-08-total-249pt5

Traders in this Market

justaluckydude

Over — $0

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Arbitrage — excluded

Anon455

Arbitrage — excluded

SlickRick123

Under — $1.0K

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over — $0

Pan9X

Under — $163.99

38791873984189

Under — $92.97

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