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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.

76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5

Resolved Over. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Under 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.5K

Combined PnL

$-4.8K

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares12,279

Combined PnL+$5.3K

Under7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares20,612

Combined PnL$-10.1K

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luckycat888888	Overavg 55¢	$5.5K	$10.0K	+$4.5K	49% 105-110 (215)
MA marvelousmarvinCTR	Underavg 50¢	$9.5K	—	$-9.5K	62% 55-34 (89)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 47¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$394.21	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.4¢	$643.26	$1.2K	+$584.78
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$978.78	—	-$978.99
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 55¢	$774.84	$886.47	+$111.63	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 50.6¢	$954.52	$954.52	+$471.6	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
LI Limousin	Overavg 48¢	$278.13	$278.13	+$144.63	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 45¢	$593.33	—	-$267	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 20¢	$5.0K	—	-$112.36	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
BI biying88888	Overavg 54¢	$86.4	$160	+$73.6	47% 242-270 (512)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 51.7¢	$465.13	—	-$101.45	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 45¢	$165.33	—	-$74.91	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
PA Pan9XCTR	Underavg 46¢	$214.67	—	-$34.84	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$7.21	—	-$3.46	50% 27970-27422 (55392)

Invested

$5,500

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

49%

105-110 (215)

marvelousmarvinCTR

Invested

$9,523.79

Value

—

PnL

$-9.5K

Record

62%

55-34 (89)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$1,622.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$394.21

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

Both legs:

Over$643.2652.4¢+$584.78

Under$978.7847¢-$978.99

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Invested

$774.84

Value

$886.47

PnL

+$111.63

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

Invested

$954.52

Value

$954.52

PnL

+$471.6

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

Invested

$278.13

Value

$278.13

PnL

+$144.63

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$593.33

Value

—

PnL

-$267

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Invested

$4,959.07

Value

—

PnL

-$112.36

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Invested

$86.4

Value

$160

PnL

+$73.6

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$465.13

Value

—

PnL

-$101.45

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Invested

$165.33

Value

—

PnL

-$74.91

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

Invested

$214.67

Value

—

PnL

-$34.84

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$7.21

Value

—

PnL

-$3.46

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9041677e...039dec

Slug

nba-phi-chi-2026-11-08-total-243pt5

Traders in this Market

luckycat888888

Over — $10.0K

marvelousmarvin

Under — $0

Anon455

Arbitrage — excluded

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over — $886.47

justaluckydude

Over — $954.52

Limousin

Over — $278.13

LightParadox

Under — $0

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under — $0

biying88888

Over — $160

38791873984189

Under — $0

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