76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 57%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$4.72
50.2¢ → 52.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 49.8¢ | $717.27 | $736.58 | +$19.31 | 54% 19942-16823 (36765) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49.8¢ | $484.76 | $511.19 | +$26.43 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49¢ | $232.51 | $225.39 | -$7.12 | |
MU Multicoloured-Serf | Overavg 49¢ | $453.19 | $457.82 | +$4.62 | 49% 507-531 (1038) |
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Overavg 52¢ | $316.08 | $319.12 | +$3.04 | 46% 33216-38836 (72052) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $245 | $237.5 | -$7.5 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
 nigiri99CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $156.8 | $161.6 | +$4.8 | 45% 14412-17706 (32118) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 50.2¢ | $91.04 | $45.06 | -$0.65 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 48.6¢ | $37.1 | $29.03 | +$0.77 | 52% 27099-24604 (51703) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $24.37 | $12.06 | -$0.37 | 57% 24613-18229 (42842) |
Invested
$717.27
Value
$736.58
PnL
+$19.31
Record
54%
19942-16823 (36765)
Both legs:
Invested
$453.19
Value
$457.82
PnL
+$4.62
Record
49%
507-531 (1038)
Invested
$316.08
Value
$319.12
PnL
+$3.04
Record
46%
33216-38836 (72052)
RN1CTRInvested
$245
Value
$237.5
PnL
-$7.5
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$156.8
Value
$161.6
PnL
+$4.8
Record
45%
14412-17706 (32118)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$91.04
Value
$45.06
PnL
-$0.65
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
Invested
$37.1
Value
$29.03
PnL
+$0.77
Record
52%
27099-24604 (51703)
Invested
$24.37
Value
$12.06
PnL
-$0.37
Record
57%
24613-18229 (42842)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.