Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bulls, while the market favors 76ers (69%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: 76ers (-6.5)

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (90%) · Bulls at 32¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8

76ers69¢Bulls31¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 90%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$77.69

Smart Money Entry

36.6¢ → 31.5¢

-14% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers69%

Bulls32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers1 trader

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,327

Combined PnL+$0.02

Bulls9 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares9,342

Combined PnL+$77.66

76ers — 10%Bulls — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrBulls 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	76ersavg 69.5¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$0.02	50% 5215-5114 (10329)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Bullsavg 39¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$2.96	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
HI hi774cCTR	Bullsavg 37¢	$620.32	$628.49	+$8.16	46% 5627-6537 (12164)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Bullsavg 26.9¢	$353.84	$401.3	+$47.46	57% 17059-13037 (30096)
RN1ARB<$100	76ersavg 62.3¢	$206.64	$202.85	-$3.79	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 62.3¢	$111.39	$126.15	+$14.76
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 36.6¢	$95.25	$76.7	-$18.55
NM NM-PCTR	Bullsavg 37¢	$190	$192.5	+$2.5	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
GC GC-PCTR	Bullsavg 37¢	$500	$192.5	+$7.5	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
AN Anon455CTR	Bullsavg 37¢	$185	$192.5	+$7.5	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Bullsavg 39¢	$94.1	$95.63	+$1.53	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	76ersavg 59¢	$86.94	$88.13	+$1.19	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 59¢	$46.15	$47.33	+$2.74
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 39¢	$40.29	$40.8	-$1.55
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bullsavg 39.3¢	$25.65	$25.77	+$0.12	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bullsavg 39¢	$13.54	$5.21	-$0.07	50% 27958-27406 (55364)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

76ers

Invested

$2,311.9

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

5215-5114 (10329)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Bulls

Invested

$1,800.36

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$2.96

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

hi774cCTR

Bulls

Invested

$620.32

Value

$628.49

PnL

+$8.16

Record

46%

5627-6537 (12164)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Bulls

Invested

$353.84

Value

$401.3

PnL

+$47.46

Record

57%

17059-13037 (30096)

RN1ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$206.64

Value

$202.85

PnL

-$3.79

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

Both legs:

76ers$111.3962.3¢+$14.76

Bulls$95.2536.6¢-$18.55

NM-PCTR

Bulls

Invested

$190

Value

$192.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

GC-PCTR

Bulls

Invested

$500

Value

$192.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

Anon455CTR

Bulls

Invested

$185

Value

$192.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$94.1

Value

$95.63

PnL

+$1.53

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

SnakeBallARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$86.94

Value

$88.13

PnL

+$1.19

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

Both legs:

Invested

$25.65

Value

$25.77

PnL

+$0.12

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$13.54

Value

$5.21

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrBulls 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.