Spread: 76ers (-1.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (64%) · 76ers at 85¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8

76ers85¢Bulls15¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 64%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$9.62

Smart Money Entry

76.7¢ → 85¢

+11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers85%

Bulls15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers7 traders

Total Value$923.56

Total Shares1,184

Combined PnL+$11.86

Bulls4 traders

Total Value$148.78

Total Shares698

Combined PnL-$2.24

76ers — 64%Bulls — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale76ers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctr76ers 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 100076ers 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	76ersavg 76¢	$480.84	$490.2	+$9.35	49% 6675-6873 (13548)
nigiri99	76ersavg 77¢	$324.17	$324.17	+$0	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Bullsavg 23¢	$93.4	$91.41	-$1.99	50% 1567-1581 (3148)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bullsavg 23.5¢	$35.42	$35.17	-$0.25	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
TA takeormake<$100	76ersavg 83.5¢	$26.72	$27.84	+$1.12	52% 5560-5183 (10743)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	76ersavg 75¢	$26.08	$26.95	+$0.88	64% 2154-1189 (3343)
38 38791873984189<$100	76ersavg 75¢	$22.42	$22.86	+$0.45	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Bullsavg 15¢	$19.2	$19.2	+$0	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
FL Flaznorp<$100	76ersavg 85¢	$17	$17	+$0	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
PA Pan9X<$100	76ersavg 75¢	$14.48	$14.54	+$0.06	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
RN1CTR<$100	Bullsavg 15¢	$3	$3	+$0	53% 70213-61793 (132006)

purplegatto

76ers

Invested

$480.84

Value

$490.2

PnL

+$9.35

Record

49%

6675-6873 (13548)

nigiri99

76ers

Invested

$324.17

Value

$324.17

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$93.4

Value

$91.41

PnL

-$1.99

Record

50%

1567-1581 (3148)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$35.42

Value

$35.17

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

takeormake<$100

76ers

Invested

$26.72

Value

$27.84

PnL

+$1.12

Record

52%

5560-5183 (10743)

darkumbreon88<$100

76ers

Invested

$26.08

Value

$26.95

PnL

+$0.88

Record

64%

2154-1189 (3343)

38791873984189<$100

76ers

Invested

$22.42

Value

$22.86

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Anon455CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$19.2

Value

$19.2

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

Flaznorp<$100

76ers

Invested

$17

Value

$17

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

Pan9X<$100

76ers

Invested

$14.48

Value

$14.54

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

RN1CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale76ers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctr76ers 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 100076ers 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.