Spread: 76ers (-14.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (40%) · Bulls at 64¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

76ers36¢Bulls64¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 40%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$28.21

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 64¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers36%

Bulls64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,672

Combined PnL+$50.32

76ers6 traders

Total Value$603.41

Total Shares1,634

Combined PnL-$22.11

Bulls — 40%76ers — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 50% · 2

Aligned

ctr76ers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 100076ers 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Bullsavg 64.9¢	$699.93	$684.6	-$15.34	50% 5215-5114 (10329)
BI biying88888	Bullsavg 54.9¢	$373.2	$421.6	+$48.4	47% 242-268 (510)
AN Anon455	Bullsavg 64¢	$320	$335	+$15	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
65 6512395314597884CTR	76ersavg 43.2¢	$375.66	$318.08	-$57.57	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
38 38791873984189	Bullsavg 64¢	$264.95	$267.21	+$2.26	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
FL FlaznorpCTR	76ersavg 29¢	$136.94	$175.29	+$38.35	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
PU purplegattoCTR	76ersavg 33¢	$161.22	$52.4	-$0.81	49% 6675-6873 (13548)
LI LimousinCTR	76ersavg 33¢	$117.73	$38.26	-$0.59	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 37.3¢	$36.88	$14.06	-$2.5	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	76ersavg 32.9¢	$4.31	$5.32	+$1.01	50% 48590-48183 (96773)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Bulls

Invested

$699.93

Value

$684.6

PnL

-$15.34

Record

50%

5215-5114 (10329)

biying88888

Bulls

Invested

$373.2

Value

$421.6

PnL

+$48.4

Record

47%

242-268 (510)

Anon455

Bulls

Invested

$320

Value

$335

PnL

+$15

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

6512395314597884CTR

76ers

Invested

$375.66

Value

$318.08

PnL

-$57.57

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

38791873984189

Bulls

Invested

$264.95

Value

$267.21

PnL

+$2.26

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

FlaznorpCTR

76ers

Invested

$136.94

Value

$175.29

PnL

+$38.35

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

purplegattoCTR

76ers

Invested

$161.22

Value

$52.4

PnL

-$0.81

Record

49%

6675-6873 (13548)

LimousinCTR

76ers

Invested

$117.73

Value

$38.26

PnL

-$0.59

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

Pan9XCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$36.88

Value

$14.06

PnL

-$2.5

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$4.31

Value

$5.32

PnL

+$1.01

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 50% · 2

Aligned

ctr76ers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 100076ers 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.