Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nets, while the market favors 76ers (68%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

76ers vs. Nets

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (38%) · Nets at 33¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17

76ers68¢Nets32¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$16.36

Smart Money Entry

34¢ → 32.5¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers68%

Nets33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets3 traders

Total Value$610.05

Total Shares1,849

Combined PnL-$17.67

76ers5 traders

Total Value$586.61

Total Shares876

Combined PnL+$1.32

Nets — 38%76ers — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNets 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 100076ers 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fyrskenCTR	Netsavg 34¢	$617.67	$600.08	-$17.59	48% 66-71 (137)
65 6512395314597884	76ersavg 66.8¢	$210.46	$211.05	+$0.59	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
GA Gaditima	76ersavg 66.8¢	$225.59	$177.28	-$0.44	49% 383-400 (783)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Netsavg 35.4¢	$173.34	$166.39	-$6.96	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 35.4¢	$104.06	$97.11	-$6.96
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 67¢	$69.28	$69.28	+$0
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69	76ersavg 67¢	$131.55	$131.55	+$0	52% 200-187 (387)
SU suntori<$100	76ersavg 65¢	$38.09	$39.26	+$1.17	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
PA Pan9X<$100	76ersavg 67¢	$27.47	$27.47	-$0	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Netsavg 33¢	$7.26	$7.26	+$0	57% 3682-2767 (6449)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Netsavg 34¢	$2.79	$2.71	-$0.08	47% 27-30 (57)

fyrskenCTR

Nets

Invested

$617.67

Value

$600.08

PnL

-$17.59

Record

48%

66-71 (137)

6512395314597884

76ers

Invested

$210.46

Value

$211.05

PnL

+$0.59

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

Gaditima

76ers

Invested

$225.59

Value

$177.28

PnL

-$0.44

Record

49%

383-400 (783)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$173.34

Value

$166.39

PnL

-$6.96

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

Both legs:

Nets$104.0635.4¢-$6.96

76ers$69.2867¢+$0

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69

76ers

Invested

$131.55

Value

$131.55

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

200-187 (387)

suntori<$100

76ers

Invested

$38.09

Value

$39.26

PnL

+$1.17

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

Pan9X<$100

76ers

Invested

$27.47

Value

$27.47

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$7.26

Value

$7.26

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3682-2767 (6449)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$2.79

Value

$2.71

PnL

-$0.08

Record

47%

27-30 (57)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNets 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 100076ers 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.