Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 216.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 49¢ · $548 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$547.56
-$9.53
52.6¢ → 48.5¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DC 0xdc41...dd7eCTR | Underavg 55¢ | $220 | $206 | -$14 | — |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 51.5¢ | $139.28 | $139.2 | -$0.09 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
74 0x7462...3ac3CTR | Underavg 47¢ | $100 | $104.26 | +$4.26 | — |
E9 0xe907...cff6CTR<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $52.38 | $49.04 | -$3.33 | — |
HI hi774c<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $33.4 | $36 | +$2.6 | 14% 77-472 (549) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Overavg 44.7¢ | $12.03 | $13.06 | +$1.03 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
Invested
$220
Value
$206
PnL
-$14
Record
—
Invested
$139.28
Value
$139.2
PnL
-$0.09
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$100
Value
$104.26
PnL
+$4.26
Record
—
Invested
$52.38
Value
$49.04
PnL
-$3.33
Record
—
Invested
$33.4
Value
$36
PnL
+$2.6
Record
14%
77-472 (549)
Invested
$12.03
Value
$13.06
PnL
+$1.03
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.