Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 215.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 47¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$6.95
46¢ → 46.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $439.48 | $465.37 | +$25.89 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48¢ | $244.8 | $272.85 | +$28.05 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47¢ | $194.68 | $192.52 | -$2.16 | |
NM NM-PCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $161 | $162.75 | +$1.75 | 59% 3478-2368 (5846) |
GC GC-PCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $161 | $162.75 | +$1.75 | 21% 99-382 (481) |
 nehcnehc | Underavg 51¢ | $114.19 | $116.43 | +$2.24 | 25% 21-63 (84) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 46¢ | $116.02 | $108.79 | +$1.41 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.3 | -$0.2 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
Invested
$439.48
Value
$465.37
PnL
+$25.89
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Both legs:
Invested
$161
Value
$162.75
PnL
+$1.75
Record
59%
3478-2368 (5846)
Invested
$161
Value
$162.75
PnL
+$1.75
Record
21%
99-382 (481)
nehcnehcInvested
$114.19
Value
$116.43
PnL
+$2.24
Record
25%
21-63 (84)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$116.02
Value
$108.79
PnL
+$1.41
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.3
PnL
-$0.2
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.