Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 214.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 49¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
$7.9K
-$185.43
50¢ → 48.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nehcnehcCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $4.6K | $4.4K | -$184.76 | 25% 21-63 (84) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | -$42.81 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$42.81 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$0 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $17.9 | $17.18 | -$0.72 | 55% 641-522 (1163) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $4.62 | $4.66 | +$0.05 | 52% 471-435 (906) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.45 | +$0 | 33% 307-625 (932) |
nehcnehcCTRInvested
$4,619
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$184.76
Record
25%
21-63 (84)
Invested
$3,521.06
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$42.81
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Both legs:
Invested
$17.9
Value
$17.18
PnL
-$0.72
Record
55%
641-522 (1163)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$4.62
Value
$4.66
PnL
+$0.05
Record
52%
471-435 (906)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
307-625 (932)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.