Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 211.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 42¢ · $300 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
$299.96
$2.98
41¢ → 41.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 42%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 41¢ | $122.94 | $124.35 | +$1.41 | 48% 1398-1531 (2929) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 41¢ | $121.12 | $122.6 | +$1.48 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 41.2¢ | $19.92 | $19.96 | +$0.03 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $15.17 | $15.35 | +$0.18 | 49% 677-717 (1394) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $10.54 | $10.51 | -$0.04 | 55% 641-522 (1163) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $7.27 | $7.19 | -$0.09 | 38% 355-588 (943) |
Invested
$122.94
Value
$124.35
PnL
+$1.41
Record
48%
1398-1531 (2929)
Invested
$121.12
Value
$122.6
PnL
+$1.48
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
Invested
$15.17
Value
$15.35
PnL
+$0.18
Record
49%
677-717 (1394)
Invested
$10.54
Value
$10.51
PnL
-$0.04
Record
55%
641-522 (1163)
Invested
$7.27
Value
$7.19
PnL
-$0.09
Record
38%
355-588 (943)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.