Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Magic, while the market favors Jazz (52%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Magic (-3.5)
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (14%) · Magic at 49¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Magic
7
Magic 14%
$9.0K
-$9.52
Research grade
AvoidMagic at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 52%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nehcnehcCTR | Magicavg 50¢ | $4.7K | $4.6K | -$141.82 | 25% 21-63 (84) |
RJ RJW1 | Jazzavg 50¢ | $3.8K | $3.9K | +$113.61 | 47% 118-132 (250) |
 VeryLucky888 | Jazzavg 50¢ | $250 | $257.5 | +$7.5 | 52% 455-428 (883) |
38 38791873984189 | Jazzavg 49¢ | $191.07 | $192.42 | +$9.67 | 48% 1352-1466 (2818) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Jazzavg 50¢ | $39.96 | $41.16 | +$1.2 | 45% 263-319 (582) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Jazzavg 49.3¢ | $18.24 | $18.49 | +$0.25 | 48% 667-712 (1379) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Jazzavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.58 | +$0.08 | 32% 291-617 (908) |
nehcnehcCTRInvested
$4,727.5
Value
$4.6K
PnL
-$141.82
Record
25%
21-63 (84)
Invested
$3,787.06
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$113.61
Record
47%
118-132 (250)
VeryLucky888Invested
$250
Value
$257.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
52%
455-428 (883)
Invested
$191.07
Value
$192.42
PnL
+$9.67
Record
48%
1352-1466 (2818)
Invested
$39.96
Value
$41.16
PnL
+$1.2
Record
45%
263-319 (582)
Invested
$18.24
Value
$18.49
PnL
+$0.25
Record
48%
667-712 (1379)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.58
PnL
+$0.08
Record
32%
291-617 (908)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.