Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Magic (56%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Magic (-2.5)

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (69%) · Jazz at 45¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 12

Magic56¢Jazz44¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 69%

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

-$62.82

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 44.5¢

-4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 56%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Magic56%

Jazz45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz9 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares16,662

Combined PnL-$103.6

Magic4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,943

Combined PnL+$40.78

Jazz — 69%Magic — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Jazzavg 46.2¢	$6.7K	$6.6K	-$102.91	70% 1671-717 (2388)
PU purplegatto	Magicavg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$31.61	69% 2586-1181 (3767)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jazzavg 46¢	$690	$682.5	-$7.5	51% 455-429 (884)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Magicavg 55¢	$470.48	$474.76	+$4.28	53% 1811-1621 (3432)
HO HomeRunHazard	Magicavg 54¢	$372.13	$375.58	+$3.45	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
HE hewhodoesit	Magicavg 53¢	$154.35	$155.8	+$1.46	— 5-6 (11)
LI LimousinCTR	Jazzavg 45¢	$97.56	$100.81	+$3.25	30% 375-876 (1251)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Jazzavg 45¢	$72.28	$74.69	+$2.41	51% 1843-1797 (3640)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Jazzavg 45¢	$57.92	$58.56	+$0.64	18% 48-217 (265)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Jazzavg 46¢	$51.98	$51.98	+$0	31% 381-851 (1232)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Jazzavg 46¢	$39.97	$40.4	+$0.43	45% 263-319 (582)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Jazzavg 45¢	$4.64	$4.69	+$0.05	37% 346-578 (924)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Jazzavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.33	+$0.03	32% 291-617 (908)

SunlineTickerCTR

Jazz

Invested

$6,673.57

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$102.91

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

purplegatto

Magic

Invested

$1,137.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$31.61

Record

69%

2586-1181 (3767)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jazz

Invested

$690

Value

$682.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

51%

455-429 (884)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Magic

Invested

$470.48

Value

$474.76

PnL

+$4.28

Record

53%

1811-1621 (3432)

HomeRunHazard

Magic

Invested

$372.13

Value

$375.58

PnL

+$3.45

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

hewhodoesit

Magic

Invested

$154.35

Value

$155.8

PnL

+$1.46

Record

—

5-6 (11)

LimousinCTR

Jazz

Invested

$97.56

Value

$100.81

PnL

+$3.25

Record

30%

375-876 (1251)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$72.28

Value

$74.69

PnL

+$2.41

Record

51%

1843-1797 (3640)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$57.92

Value

$58.56

PnL

+$0.64

Record

18%

48-217 (265)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$51.98

Value

$51.98

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

381-851 (1232)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$39.97

Value

$40.4

PnL

+$0.43

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

sentrioCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$4.64

Value

$4.69

PnL

+$0.05

Record

37%

346-578 (924)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

32%

291-617 (908)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 56%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.