Magic vs. Kings: O/U 223.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 52¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$9.5K
-$1.88
51.9¢ → 51.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 51.9¢ | $4.3K | $4.3K | +$5.34 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
HG hgawxCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $3.8K | $3.8K | +$0 | 2% 1-43 (44) |
KA KasonWong | Underavg 52¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$0 | 12% 3-22 (25) |
73 739633786CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $352.8 | $345.6 | -$7.2 | 3% 5-185 (190) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $2.59 | $2.57 | -$0.02 | 35% 171-317 (488) |
Invested
$4,265.77
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$5.34
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$3,839.23
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$0
Record
2%
1-43 (44)
Invested
$1,040
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$0
Record
12%
3-22 (25)
Invested
$352.8
Value
$345.6
PnL
-$7.2
Record
3%
5-185 (190)
Invested
$2.59
Value
$2.57
PnL
-$0.02
Record
35%
171-317 (488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.