Spread: Kings (-5.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (40%) · Magic at 79¢ · $302 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Magic
5
Magic 40%
$301.99
$0.12
80¢ → 79¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidMagic at 79%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Magicavg 80¢ | $189.59 | $189.59 | +$0 | 50% 1432-1432 (2864) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Magicavg 80¢ | $68.64 | $68.64 | -$0 | 32% 183-396 (579) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Kingsavg 20¢ | $35.9 | $35.9 | +$0 | 25% 227-676 (903) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Kingsavg 20¢ | $5.46 | $5.46 | +$0 | 26% 233-650 (883) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Kingsavg 19¢ | $2.28 | $2.4 | +$0.12 | 26% 232-661 (893) |
Invested
$189.59
Value
$189.59
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1432-1432 (2864)
Invested
$68.64
Value
$68.64
PnL
-$0
Record
32%
183-396 (579)
Invested
$35.9
Value
$35.9
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
227-676 (903)
Invested
$5.46
Value
$5.46
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
233-650 (883)
Invested
$2.28
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.12
Record
26%
232-661 (893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.