Spread: Magic (-6.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (40%) · Kings at 53¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
5
Kings 40%
$6.1K
$107.24
52¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA PacersThreeandahalf | Kingsavg 52¢ | $5.7K | $5.8K | +$110.33 | 62% 1003-623 (1626) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Magicavg 48¢ | $124.8 | $122.2 | -$2.6 | 59% 3119-2207 (5326) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100 | Magicavg 47¢ | $60.85 | $60.85 | -$0 | 70% 1655-702 (2357) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Magicavg 48¢ | $47.3 | $46.81 | -$0.49 | 50% 1387-1404 (2791) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Kingsavg 52¢ | $16.64 | $16.64 | +$0 | 52% 123-112 (235) |
Invested
$5,737.18
Value
$5.8K
PnL
+$110.33
Record
62%
1003-623 (1626)
Invested
$124.8
Value
$122.2
PnL
-$2.6
Record
59%
3119-2207 (5326)
Invested
$60.85
Value
$60.85
PnL
-$0
Record
70%
1655-702 (2357)
Invested
$47.3
Value
$46.81
PnL
-$0.49
Record
50%
1387-1404 (2791)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$16.64
Value
$16.64
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
123-112 (235)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.