Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Magic (59%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Magic (-3.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (80%) · Kings at 42¢ · $150 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
5
Kings 80%
$150.26
-$2.07
41.6¢ → 41.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 42%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE VenusianCTR | Kingsavg 42¢ | $121.43 | $118.54 | -$2.89 | 25% 227-676 (903) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Magicavg 58¢ | $15.66 | $15.66 | +$0 | 49% 438-463 (901) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Kingsavg 38¢ | $9.81 | $10.58 | +$0.77 | 50% 1432-1432 (2864) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Kingsavg 41¢ | $3.43 | $3.43 | +$0 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Kingsavg 40¢ | $2 | $2.05 | +$0.05 | 25% 176-515 (691) |
Invested
$121.43
Value
$118.54
PnL
-$2.89
Record
25%
227-676 (903)
Invested
$15.66
Value
$15.66
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
438-463 (901)
Invested
$9.81
Value
$10.58
PnL
+$0.77
Record
50%
1432-1432 (2864)
Invested
$3.43
Value
$3.43
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$2
Value
$2.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
25%
176-515 (691)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.