Spread: Magic (-1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (67%) · Magic at 73¢ · $875 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Magic
6
Magic 67%
$875.3
-$4.4
70.7¢ → 73¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidMagic at 73%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Magicavg 65¢ | $269.58 | $263.52 | -$6.06 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Kingsavg 36¢ | $236.16 | $242.72 | +$6.56 | 42% 574-809 (1383) |
 RN1 | Magicavg 78.8¢ | $248.1 | $242.55 | -$5.55 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Kingsavg 21.9¢ | $72.06 | $74.1 | +$2.04 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Magicavg 65¢ | $48.1 | $46.62 | -$1.48 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Magicavg 62¢ | $5.7 | $5.79 | +$0.09 | 49% 220-228 (448) |
Invested
$269.58
Value
$263.52
PnL
-$6.06
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Invested
$236.16
Value
$242.72
PnL
+$6.56
Record
42%
574-809 (1383)
RN1Invested
$248.1
Value
$242.55
PnL
-$5.55
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$72.06
Value
$74.1
PnL
+$2.04
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
Invested
$48.1
Value
$46.62
PnL
-$1.48
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$5.79
PnL
+$0.09
Record
49%
220-228 (448)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.