Spread: Magic (-18.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (40%) · Kings at 84¢ · $493 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
5
Kings 40%
$493.17
$0.42
82.9¢ → 83.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 84%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Kingsavg 82.9¢ | $338.17 | $340.49 | +$2.32 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Kingsavg 83¢ | $74.69 | $75.14 | +$0.45 | 34% 233-457 (690) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Magicavg 17¢ | $66.62 | $64.66 | -$1.96 | 28% 278-729 (1007) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Magicavg 17¢ | $11.46 | $11.12 | -$0.34 | 28% 278-703 (981) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Magicavg 17¢ | $1.82 | $1.77 | -$0.05 | 28% 274-715 (989) |
Invested
$338.17
Value
$340.49
PnL
+$2.32
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
Invested
$74.69
Value
$75.14
PnL
+$0.45
Record
34%
233-457 (690)
Invested
$66.62
Value
$64.66
PnL
-$1.96
Record
28%
278-729 (1007)
Invested
$11.46
Value
$11.12
PnL
-$0.34
Record
28%
278-703 (981)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$1.77
PnL
-$0.05
Record
28%
274-715 (989)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.