Spread: Magic (-10.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (50%) · Kings at 72¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
8
Kings 50%
$11.9K
$1.7K
50.9¢ → 72¢
+42% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 72%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Greedo | Kingsavg 50¢ | $4.8K | $6.9K | +$2.1K | 49% 184-190 (374) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Magicavg 50¢ | $4.6K | $4.2K | -$365.89 | 54% 1662-1438 (3100) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Magicavg 31.6¢ | $295.36 | $257.3 | -$38.06 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
38 38791873984189 | Kingsavg 70.9¢ | $167.71 | $154.42 | -$13.29 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
65 6512395314597884 | Kingsavg 69.9¢ | $144.25 | $139.35 | -$4.9 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
 RN1CTR | Magicavg 51¢ | $126.48 | $114.08 | -$12.4 | 58% 3830-2807 (6637) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Magicavg 35.5¢ | $59.98 | $77.74 | +$17.76 | 49% 220-229 (449) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Kingsavg 67.7¢ | $80.96 | $39.83 | -$6.95 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
GreedoInvested
$4,795.34
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
49%
184-190 (374)
Invested
$4,564.85
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$365.89
Record
54%
1662-1438 (3100)
Invested
$295.36
Value
$257.3
PnL
-$38.06
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Invested
$167.71
Value
$154.42
PnL
-$13.29
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Invested
$144.25
Value
$139.35
PnL
-$4.9
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
RN1CTRInvested
$126.48
Value
$114.08
PnL
-$12.4
Record
58%
3830-2807 (6637)
Invested
$59.98
Value
$77.74
PnL
+$17.76
Record
49%
220-229 (449)
Invested
$80.96
Value
$39.83
PnL
-$6.95
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.