Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Magic, while the market favors Warriors (69%). 4 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Magic vs. Warriors

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (31%) · Magic at 32¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 8

Magic32¢Warriors68¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 31%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$96.8

Smart Money Entry

31.1¢ → 31.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Magic32%

Warriors69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic4 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares20,879

Combined PnL+$90.34

Warriors9 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares6,289

Combined PnL+$6.46

Magic — 31%Warriors — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Magicavg 31¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$102.71	53% 661-579 (1240)
nigiri99	Warriorsavg 69¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$19.66	46% 8703-10373 (19076)
HO HomeRunHazard	Warriorsavg 68.6¢	$985.73	$984.17	-$1.56	54% 18313-15414 (33727)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 66.9¢	$632.49	$609.42	+$8.89	48% 62058-66943 (129001)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 66.9¢	$456.07	$466.72	+$11.15
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 32¢	$144.96	$142.7	-$2.27
AP AppleTiiime	Warriorsavg 64.4¢	$446.79	$467.96	+$21.17	55% 70-58 (128)
FL Flaznorp	Warriorsavg 67¢	$173.84	$177.74	+$3.89	51% 26669-25270 (51939)
TA takeormakeCTR	Magicavg 36¢	$100.08	$88.96	-$9.73	52% 4962-4513 (9475)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 73.9¢	$73.84	$80.9	+$7.06	51% 4833-4699 (9532)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 22.9¢	$29.49	$41.28	+$11.79
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 73.9¢	$44.35	$39.62	-$4.73
PA Pan9X<$100	Warriorsavg 67.5¢	$97.68	$71.25	+$0.77	54% 10168-8540 (18708)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Warriorsavg 65¢	$23.21	$24.46	+$1.25	53% 12543-11257 (23800)
0xheavy888<$100	Warriorsavg 68¢	$13.6	$13.7	+$0.1	56% 8134-6444 (14578)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Magicavg 36.2¢	$15.48	$13.15	-$2.33	48% 7430-7967 (15397)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Magicavg 32¢	$25.85	$7.93	-$0.31	58% 21564-15645 (37209)
RL RLWG<$100	Warriorsavg 66¢	$5.2	$5.36	+$0.16	50% 8376-8430 (16806)
GA Gaditima<$100	Warriorsavg 65.2¢	$4.14	$4.2	+$0.35	48% 7456-8173 (15629)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Magic

Invested

$6,368.24

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$102.71

Record

53%

661-579 (1240)

nigiri99

Warriors

Invested

$2,575.39

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$19.66

Record

46%

8703-10373 (19076)

HomeRunHazard

Warriors

Invested

$985.73

Value

$984.17

PnL

-$1.56

Record

54%

18313-15414 (33727)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$632.49

Value

$609.42

PnL

+$8.89

Record

48%

62058-66943 (129001)

Both legs:

Warriors$456.0766.9¢+$11.15

Magic$144.9632¢-$2.27

AppleTiiime

Warriors

Invested

$446.79

Value

$467.96

PnL

+$21.17

Record

55%

70-58 (128)

Flaznorp

Warriors

Invested

$173.84

Value

$177.74

PnL

+$3.89

Record

51%

26669-25270 (51939)

takeormakeCTR

Magic

Invested

$100.08

Value

$88.96

PnL

-$9.73

Record

52%

4962-4513 (9475)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$73.84

Value

$80.9

PnL

+$7.06

Record

51%

4833-4699 (9532)

Both legs:

Magic$29.4922.9¢+$11.79

Warriors$44.3573.9¢-$4.73

Pan9X<$100

Warriors

Invested

$97.68

Value

$71.25

PnL

+$0.77

Record

54%

10168-8540 (18708)

BoomLaLa<$100

Warriors

Invested

$23.21

Value

$24.46

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

12543-11257 (23800)

0xheavy888<$100

Warriors

Invested

$13.6

Value

$13.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

8134-6444 (14578)

OddstormCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$15.48

Value

$13.15

PnL

-$2.33

Record

48%

7430-7967 (15397)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$25.85

Value

$7.93

PnL

-$0.31

Record

58%

21564-15645 (37209)

RLWG<$100

Warriors

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.36

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

8376-8430 (16806)

Gaditima<$100

Warriors

Invested

$4.14

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.35

Record

48%

7456-8173 (15629)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.